On the April 24th general elections in Slovenia, the center right government parties defeated the opposition parties 3:1. However, they were themselves defeated by a new party created out of thin air two months before the elections. A party called movement — “Freedom Movement” — that was not in the parliament, that has not been part of the democratic processes, that did nothing to be rewarded or punished for, won 41 out of 90 seats. Extraparliamentary miracle! Some European liberals call this a win for a “pro-European” side, for democracy. Is it? Or is it a sign of a deep malaise of Slovenian democracy?
I thought the European side was the one that was praised for its presidency of the European Council in the second half of 2021. I thought the European side was one that stands firmly with Ukraine. Few stood as firmly as PM Janez Janša who was on one of the first trains to visit Kyiv. I thought democracy is where the fight for power acts out in the parliament, where the political struggle is among the existing political parties. A brand-new political party can get 40 out of 90 seats only in a country where the real power is somewhere else, not in the three branches, and that does not have pluralistic media.
The government of Janez Janša took office virtually on the day the COVID epidemic was declared in March 2020; after the previous prime minister, two years earlier himself a newcomer, resigned. Its core were two EPP parties (Slovenian Democratic Party of Janez Janša and Christian Democrats of Matej Tonin). It included two center-left parties that switched sides from the former coalition. The government had to do all the unpopular restrictions and lockdowns. The opposition opposed each and every measure, dragging some to constitutional court, others to the streets.
International comparison would show though that the COVID restrictions were on the lighter side of the severity spectrum. The economic handling of the pandemic was excellent — The Economist judged Slovenia as 2nd best performer globally and the economy very quickly rebounded to be one of the fastest growing in OECD. In 2022, historical highs in employment and historic lows in unemployment were reached.
But this was not enough to convince the voters in Slovenia to give the government another mandate. Mr. Janša is hated for speaking his mind clearly, sometimes bluntly. He talks back to journalists, sometimes impolitely. The discontent that has been fueled by mass media and by the street protests, also during lockdowns, showed on election day.
People chose the “Freedom Movement” of a newcomer — former energy “oligarch” (as much as that term could apply in a two million Slovenia) and, until recently, a CEO of a big state owned energy company. The promised freedoms include the closing down of independent academic institutions and media not part of the mainstream conglomerate. The promised freedom, we were led to believe, includes never again COVID restrictions and masks in schools.
We are yet to see how European this Freedom Movement is. The election slogans should not be taken too seriously. They were all over the place. But the winners were flirting with the anti vaxxer vote. Among the elected MPs are admirers of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, Russia appeasers, and outspoken critics of the firm Slovenian position vis-à-vis Russia. Ironically, the winner’s policies towards Russia may be closer to that of Mr. Orban. Ironically because it was Mr. Janša who was blamed for his friendship with Orban. We shall see, it is too early to say.
Slovenia is not the land of the brave, it is the land of the new. It is not land of economic opportunity as the red tape and taxes still run high, but it is a land of political opportunity. Many Slovenians believe the bourgeois politics is bad and politicians are worse; much like the former communist party would have us believe in the 1970s. These were the fifth or so elections where the people decided that they would like a newcomer, a non-politician to be a politician. It is only one thing that they dislike more than old political faces: new political faces that are beyond their expiration date. Two prime ministers and three parties who were the election winners since 2011 were wiped out of the parliament this Sunday.
Nation’s hope is now with Mr. Golob. We should wish him luck. He will need to deliver, and this is harder than dispensing focus-group-checked election one-liners. More importantly, he would need to reign in the powers that decided he would win the elections. Because if he does not, they may very well create someone new to win elections in four years.
What next?
Unpopular but successful, staunchly pro-European and pro-NATO government of Mr. Janša was ousted. The new government can go either way. But the win of Mr. Golob would be a win for democracy and the win for Europe only if he can break free from the very powers that put him in place and ensure that the next election is fought as it is in parliamentary democracies — among political parties, in the parliament, based on how they did as government or as opposition. This would be European and democratic, wouldn’t it?
